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Send this topic Print. All of my MM approaches are pretty conservative. Win or lose, the second bet is 2 units. If the 2 is won, go back to 1. Always go back to 1 after winning a 2.
If the 1 and 2 both lose bet 2 one more time. If the are all lost, go back to 1 and start again. The pattern of whether or not your paper bets consistently win will guide your decision as to whether or not to go for the 4th.
NEVER go past 4 losses in a row. Bankroll for the shoe units. I usually limit my risk to 8 units in any shoe using this MM.
If you are still minus in the shoe, make just enough more 2 unit bets to get plus in the shoe, then restart the 5 L1 bets.
In most shoes, you will not go past the L2 bets but do not hesitate to go the L3 bets if you have money left from your buy in of units. If such a system were to become known, it would be relatively easy for the casinos to ban their use anyway, so perhaps it is as well that should such a one exist it is not well known.
It seems to be the nature of gamblers to look for that angle or edge that can be exploited to make a fortune.
Even though players can see the massive land based casinos and should be able to realize that such businesses are very expensive to build, and therefore must be very profitable for the owners, they are still drawn in to risk their money attempting to get rich.
The whole gambling business is built on the inability of the gambler to see this obvious fact. Of course gamblers do win, most only in the short term, while a few do manage to make a living out of it.
Positive progressions: raise bets after wins, hoping to use the "house money" to create a large win. Each of these systems has positive and negative characteristics, but the approach, which catches the most flack from gaming experts, is the negative progression.
The advocates of positive progressions don't think much of increasing your wager after a loss. By their thinking, increasing a bet after you have lost amounts to throwing good money after bad,.
However, as we shall see, in the short run just the opposite is likely to be true. Assume that we are going to bet player for eight decisions. Three different players will help us in this illustration.
Player A does not believe in ever changing the size of his bet. He bets flat, that is the same amount on every hand, regardless of the outcome of his preceding hand.
Player B likes to follow the system many experts recommend and he will press or double his bet after each win, gradually betting more and more as he uses the house's money.
Player C has heard that increasing his bets after losses is the "surest way to win. The following table compares the results of eight decisions, consisting of six losses and two wins.
I purposely set up this example to illustrate some of the characteristics of each of the betting strategies. For a given session, flat betting leads to sessions with the narrowest, most balanced range of expected wins and losses.
Positive progressions, like the progression used by Player B, offer more likelihood of an adverse than a favorable session, with intermittent large wins.
Negative progressions, like the one used by Player C, offer a greater chance of winning any given session but have the characteristic of generating many small wins with occasional large losses.
The exact result of sessions played in casinos depends on the details of each game and on variations applied to systems by individual players.
However, by ignoring variations, using each system in its rawest form, we can test how each system performed against the same set of decisions and comment on general characteristics of each approach to wagering.
A test was created assuming that wagers are made on pass line only. Each game was decisions long. Limits on the progressions were imposed which required any progression to end immediately if the next bet required in the series exceeded units.
The following systems were tested. Please note that these are not presented as practical systems but are used to emphasize the differences you can expect in each approach to wagering.
Flat Betting: Single units are bet and the amount never varies. Positive Progression: In this parlay type of progression, bets are doubled after every win and reduced to one unit after every loss.
Assuming a string of nine consecutive wins, this progression would be: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, , Negative Progression: A Martingale type of progression is used where bets are doubled after every loss and reduced to a single unit after any win.
Assuming a string of nine consecutive losses, this series would consist of the following wagers: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, , The results of a 2,session computer run using each technique are presented in a table on the following page.
This table shows some of the trade offs among the systems. Notice that while the average size bet for flat betting was 1 unit, it increased to 3. The average size bet was larger for negative than positive progression because runs of losing bets were longer, and therefore, required higher wagers than runs of winning bets.
In this contest, which is also analogous to blackjack, the losing streaks tended to be longer than the winning streaks. Flat betting won The positive progression showed the lowest win percentage of all, winning only 9.
This strategy was clearly the winner in terms of the number of individual games won. The last column in the table "Equivalent Amount Won or Lost" shows how much the amounts would have been if the flat and positive betting strategies' wagers had been raised so that the averages were the same as with the negative progression.
Positive 3. Negative 5. There are a number of variables which affect your ability to avoid losing your bankroll.
These variables include the type of betting system used, the size of your bankroll, the games you play, the length of time you play, and your luck at winning any given gaming contest.
Let's compare the effects of using different betting systems on our ability to play without losing our bankroll.
The betting systems we will use are: 1. Flat betting. Positive Progression. Negative Progression. Here's the game we will face.
We will play in a coin-tossing contest and we will always wager heads. Heads wins even money less a 2 percent house commission.
When tails shows we lose the wager. The chances here are and the house edge is 1 percent. The next table shows how each betting system fares, varying the size of our bankroll and the number of games played.
Each game consists of bets. Flat betting offers the least chance of losing your bankroll. Using a positive progression gives you almost as good a chance of keeping your bankroll intact as flat betting.
Computer Run Testing Different Betting Systems Comparing the Bankroll Used and the Length of Time Played. Increasing your bets after losses greatly increases your chance of losing all of your bankroll.
The moral of this comparison should be obvious. Using a negative betting progression greatly increases your likelihood of losing your bankroll unless you increase your bankroll to an adequate level.
All gambling strategies involve compromises. Betting flat offers the greatest likelihood of keeping your bankroll, but the poorest chance of winning.
Using a positive betting progression wins only 9. At first glance at the table on the preceding page, it would seem that this high win rate came only by increasing our risk of losing our bankroll by a large factor.
But please note the following. If we are willing to use a somewhat larger bankroll, using a negative progression gives us the best of all worlds: A high probability of winning and a low possibility of losing our bankroll.
This is something that almost no gambling experts will ever tell you. Experts invariably recommend only the first two approaches to win any gaming contest.
The first approach is to gain a mathematical edge over the game. This is the strategy card counters hope to use at blackjack.
At roulette, wheel watchers hope to gain an edge by finding an unbalanced wheel where the ball lands in one section of the wheel a higher percentage of the time than chance would explain.
With baccarat, advantage seekers look to precision shooting to alter the casino's edge against the players. The second approach to gambling, almost universally recommended by the experts, is to use a positive betting progression.
That this is the best system for capitalizing on winning streaks is the number one reason cited for using this system. Almost never mentioned by the experts is that this system has a dismal winning rate, losing about 9 out of every 10 sessions.
As we have seen, the betting strategy with the greatest chance of winning is the negative progression. With an adequate bankroll, the risk of loss can be reduced to a reasonable amount.
The examples and simulations used in this chapter were for games of chance, rather than a game of skill like blackjack.
The examples also assumed games where the house had an edge over the player. Our examples serve to illustrate the varying characteristics of betting flat versus using either a positive or negative betting progression.
In the next chapter we will take a look at different betting systems. Several of these approaches are over one hundred years old.
Let's see if our not so dumb ancestors had any meaningful insights on how to beat the baccarat game! Betting Progressions Betting systems fall into the broad categories of betting the same after each decision, known as flat betting, raising wagers after wins, called positive progressions, and raising money after losses, named negative progressions.
There are also systems which have characteristics of one or more of these types, such as the The Ultimate Baccarat Betting System which we will encounter in a few more chapters.
Many of the classical betting systems were developed for roulette in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, but can be used for other games with even-money wagers such as craps, baccarat and blackjack.
Although none of these systems in its pure form is a winning system, it is worthwhile to study the efforts of our ancestors as these betting systems are the grandparents of every modern betting system.
Martingale Martingale is one of the oldest betting systems using a negative progression. It is named after Henry Martingale, an English casino owner in the s who is reputed to urge losing punters to "double 'em up" with their wagers.
This system is very simple. You will use a betting series where each bet in the series is twice as large as the preceding one, as with 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, So long as you win a bet, you will continue to bet at the lowest level, e.
If you lose a bet, you will move up to the next wager, doubling the amount of the previous wager. Use of the system ensures that whenever your wager eventually wins, you will win the amount of the original wager, in this instance 1.
One of my gambling friends once told me about an amazing system he had developed for craps. He had gone to Las Vegas on two consecutive trips and returned a winner.
He was certain that his risk of loss was very small and planned to continue to use the system. He was reluctant to share the system with me but he finally confessed that he was using the following betting series, increasing his wager one.
He correctly pointed out that he would have to lose nine times in a row to lose the betting series, and he just didn't think that this was possible.
I pointed out to him that there was a very real possibility that he could lose nine decisions in a row; in fact, this would happen once about every pass line - don't pass decisions.
With craps decisions averaging fifty to sixty per hour, a loss of all nine wagers could happen once every eight to ten hours. This must have impressed him as I don't think he ever used this system again or at least he didn't tell me about losing with it.
The Martingale system would be just about unbeatable if you could continue to double your wagers until you finally won a bet. Modern casinos are very aware of Martingale, and they know that the easiest way to thwart the system is to narrow the spread between maximum and minimum bets allowed.
In other words, the minimum wager must be high enough and the maximum wager low enough that no more than eight or nine doublings can occur.
You could use the following series of wagers: 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 1, 2, With 12 bets in the series, you would be an odds-on favorite to win any weekend gambling contest involving even-money wagers.
However, you might want to consider one thing. Are you willing to risk it? If you win, you will be up exactly one buck for your efforts.
While the risk of loss is low, it will happen at some time if you continue to wager this way, and there is no guarantee that it won't happen during your first casino excursion using this system.
Mini-Martingale Martingale in its purest form is too risky for the amount of reward offered. Nearly every gambling expert likes to cite Martingale as an example of a losing system and then jump into a gloating mode and proclaim that all betting systems are losers.
However, a Martingale system can be used with very good results if it is used on a spot basis. Assume that you are wagering on an even-money game and that you have lost the last four consecutive wagers.
Usually, a three-stage Martingale against this trend continuing for three more decisions will be quite profitable and the reward will be reasonable as compared to the amount risked.
A five-stage Martingale progression can be used very profitably when it is used against a betting pattern which is less likely to occur than would normally be expected.
Grand Martingale One criticism of Martingale is that too much is risked as compared to the potential return. With Grand Martingale, additional chips are added to each increased wager, so that when a win finally occurs, the amount won will be greater than just the amount of the first wager.
A typical Grand Martingale series is: 1 3 5 15 35 Martingale in all forms risks a lot to win a little. When the losses come, they will wipe out hours of profits.
Another twist to using a Martingale series is to play Martingale in reverse, called an "Anti-Martingale" betting series.
With this system, winning wagers will be pressed doubled. Whenever you encounter a long winning streak this system can produce phenomenal profits.
Assume we use the following Anti-Martingale series: 5 10 20 40 The high-risk reward ratio is a major reason raising your wagers after wins is recommended by many gaming experts.
Labouchere With Labouchere, also known as the Cancellation System, the player sets up a series of numbers which will add up to the profit he will make if he wins this betting series.
Like the variations of Martingale, this series is used with even-money bets. If he wins this wager, he will cancel the two outside numbers by scratching them out, and wager the sum of the next two outside numbers.
In this simple series, only the single number of 2 is left, so the player would wager 2. If he also wins this wager, he will have won the series, having won 4 on the first hand and 2 for the second wager, for a total of 6, the total of all bets in the series.
Any time the player loses a wager, he will add the amount lost to the series and continue to wager the sum of the two outside wagers.
Let's assume the player lost the first bet of 4. He would add this wager to the series, which would now become: 1 2 3 4.
His next wager would be for 5, the sum of the two outside wagers. We will assume that this bet wins. Having won the bet, our players cancels the outside numbers of 1 and 4 leaving the series as: 2 3.
He next wagers the sum of these two numbers, betting 5. If this wager wins the series is completed. If he loses this wager, the losing bet of 5 will be added to the series and he will continue the series.
The principal appeal of this system is that it appears to be a two for one proposition in that each win cancels two numbers while a loss only adds one number to the series.
However, this isn't the case, as the player is not paid two for one on winning bets. In testing this system, I have had bets escalate to wagers of hundreds of dollars all too frequently.
This is probably the most insidious of the old time roulette systems. It is said to have been responsible for more suicides on the French Riviera than any other system.
Part of the problem with this system is that the small stream of steady wins tends to lull the player into believing that the system can't lose.
Unfortunately, a long enough losing streak will occur that the wagers called for will either be larger than the player's bankroll or will.
In either case, the series will be over with the end result that the player suffers a substantial loss.
This system can also be played in reverse, known as Reverse Labouchere. With Reverse Labby, as many punters call it, the amount of each win is added to the series, and the two outside numbers are canceled whenever a loss occurs.
Each wager is still the sum of the two outside numbers. This system produces many small losses in exchange for an occasional win over 1, times the amount at risk.
Norman Leigh theorized that the reason so many players lose with Labouchere is that they run into the house limits or lose their playing capital and are unable to recoup losses.
Since the bank has almost unlimited capital in comparison to the players, the bank can out wait most player assaults, knowing that either the house betting limit or the player's own limited financial resources will bring about the player's demise.
In using the reverse betting strategy, Leigh reasoned that this approach would most closely resemble the bank's approach to most other players.
He would wait out the small losses until a large win occurred. Leigh spent months recruiting and training a team to play against the casino.
His trials in pulling off this coup make for fascinating reading. I believe that one of the reasons he was eventually able to beat the casino in Monte Carlo was that his starting wagers were fairly low and the house maximums large in comparison.
Consequently, he was able to keep his losses fairly low while his team played on, waiting for the monster win.
It is doubtful that this system could be used successfully now, as the spread between minimum and maximum wagers is not large enough in most casinos.
The losses realized while waiting for the large win would be enormous, with the house limits on maximum wagers limiting the systems' ability to ultimately recoup the losses.
D'Alembert This system was invented by a French mathematician, based on the assumption of equilibrium in gaming contests.
D'Alembert reasoned that since winning and losing bets must eventually equal one another, a system of adding one chip after each losing bet and subtracting a chip after a winning bet would ultimately result in a win as winning wagers would always be greater than losing ones.
It is not unusual to win only ten of the first thirty wagers in an even-money betting contest. With d'Alembert's system, the player will wager higher and higher amounts until he eventually runs into our old nemesis, the house limit.
D'Alembert can be fairly successful if it is modified to include no more than nine or ten bets in a series of wagers, so that potential losses are limited.
An additional modification to improve the system is to space the bets so that the win of two consecutive wagers will offset prior losses.
A series which accomplishes this is 1 2 3 4 7 11 With this series, a player would drop back to the lowest bet after winning two consecutive wagers, such as 7 and 4.
This system can be fairly successful if used by two partners betting the opposite in roulette, craps or baccarat.
Contra-dAlembert Like Reverse Labouchere, the idea behind Contra-d'Alembert is to reduce the amount risked while allowing profitable runs to rise to great heights.
With this strategy we will increase our wager one level after a win and reduce it a level following a loss. The only positive aspect to the strategy is that when you hit a prolonged losing streak the size of your wagers is quickly reduced.
In this respect this system can help protect your bankroll. However, the upside of using any system requiring increasing your wager following wins is limited.
Trends of long, uninterrupted winning streaks are fairly rare in gaming and a system relying on piling up win after consecutive win is not going to win very often.
Here's an example. Your first bet is for one unit. You win and move up to betting two units. With another win, you wager three units and have a loss.
You have won two out of three bets and have absolutely nothing to show for it. All of your profit evaporated with that single loss.
If you could always pick your spots, this system would have merit. Of course, if pigs could fly. It is just about impossible to know in advance when a threewager consecutive win might occur so that you could jump in with a Contra-d'Alembert.
Like so many systems, this one sounds good on paper, but is difficult to squeeze profits out of in real world gaming.
Ascot This is another of the old time roulette systems that can be adapted to any game offering even-money bets. With Ascot, winning wagers are increased one unit at a time in a predetermined series of wagers while losing bets are lowered one step using the same betting series.
An Ascot betting series can be from seven to eleven numbers. A typical series is: 2 3 5 8 13 20 The player's first wager would be a middle number such as 8.
If this wager wins, the next wager would be If this wager also won, the succeeding wager would be for 20, and so on, with each win followed by an increase of one level in the betting series.
The series would end with the win of the last bet in the series. For a win, that would be a win of A losing series would be terminated with the loss of the lowest bet of 2.
The greatest problem with Ascot is that alternating wins and losses at the higher levels of wagers will destroy the profit potential of the series.
This can be a serious flaw in any system calling for a large reduction in the amount wagered following a loss. The Fibonacci System Fibonacci was a mathematician who discovered a series of numbers where the sum of each two numbers in the series equals the number which follows.
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For each session set Win goal and Loss limit. The art of winning :Never replay any net winnings. Just control the losses.
Attempt to win 2 out of 3 sessions. Play at your own risk.The Magic Five System Seq. # Number Red/Black Difference Favoring Repeats Difference Favoring Changes 1 25 R 0 0 2 9 R 1 -1 3 11 B 0 0 4 1 R-1 1 5 30 R 0 0 6 32 R 1 -1 7 21 R 2 -2 8 28 B 1 -1 9 27 R 0 0 10 8 B-1 1 11 26 B 0 0 12 27 R-1 1 13 30 R 0 0 14 7 R 1 -1 15 00 G 1 -1 16 17 B 0 0 17 7 R-1 1 18 25 R 0 0 19 8 B-1 1 As you can see, decision 2 was a repeating color. Introduction The Ultimate Baccarat Strategy Wins Like No Other Strategy If I told you we were winning 85% of our baccarat games, you would probably be impressed Almost no businessman, stock trader or gambler has a system that wins 85% of the time. But, we do a lot better than this. The Six-Bet Baccarat System becomes the fastest and highest winning baccarat system ever tested. When I welcome you to the world of Six-Bet Baccarat. You are one of the few players who has gained access to the system developed for a billionaire that wins like crazy for players using just $35! Wer an der Reihe ist, legt seine oberste Mehr. Pflichtteilaufgaben zu Stochastik Pfadregeln, Erwartungswert, Binomialverteilung Baden-Württemberg Pflichtteilaufgaben zu Stochastik Pfadregeln, Erwartungswert, Binomialverteilung Baden-Württemberg Hilfsmittel: keine allgemeinbildende Gymnasien Alexander Schwarz www. Was ist ein Baccara?